From Marcus Weisgerber and Pierre Tran, Defense News:  François Hollande may have pledged on the campaign stump to pull France’s combat troops out of Afghanistan by the end of this year, but analysts expect the president-elect to do his utmost to reassure NATO allies that France is a solid partner when the alliance chiefs meet in Chicago later this month… .

Outgoing French President Nicolas Sarkozy surprised NATO allies when he said Jan. 20 that Paris would pull out combat troops by the end of 2013. A few days later, U.S. Defense SecretaryLeon Panetta said he hoped Afghan forces would take the “combat lead” in 2013, but American forces would still be engaged in combat missions.

To differentiate himself during the campaign against Sarkozy, Hollande proposed that French combat units would leave one year earlier, said Loic Tribot la Spiere, chief executive of Paris think tank Centre d’Etude et Prospective Stratégique.

With the campaign over, analysts suggest that Hollande has given himself an escape route from his campaign pledge.

But Hollande also knows how important it is to maintain France’s standing in the alliance.

Socialist lawmaker Bernard Cazeneuve, a defense specialist and spokesman for Hollande’s campaign, said the French leader fully understands Paris is a member of an alliance and will “propose” an early withdrawal when he goes to Chicago. Indeed, Hollande is not one to slam his fist on the table, but will try to explain to the allies the sense of the French move, Tribot la Spiere said… .

“The principle which applies for the German government is: We entered [Afghanistan] together, we will leave together,” Chancellor Angela Merkel told German lawmakers May 10, Agence France-Presse reported.

Merkel’s remarks were widely seen as taking aim at Hollande ahead of the NATO summit, which begins May 20.

Individual nations should not organize redeployment plans “in isolation,” French Air Force Gen. Stéphane Abrial, who heads NATO’s U.S.-based Allied Transformation Command, said at a May 8 Defense Writers Group breakfast in Washington.

The Netherlands pulled its troops out of Afghanistan in 2010 and Canada ended combat operations last year, but keeps a training mission… .

Barry Pavel, director of the International Security Program and director-designate of the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security at the Atlantic Council in Washington, said he is looking for three major components out of the Afghanistan discussions in Chicago.

Specifically, will the International Security Assistance Force be able to sustain the level of troops needed throughout the phased transition to Afghan forces in the coming years; what is the strategy after the transition in 2014 and beyond; and will NATO leaders be able to convince the public to support “residual military activities,” such as training and advising, beyond 2014, he said.

“[I]f I had to guess, we’d have what we call a [quick reaction force] somewhere in the region … that if all of a sudden there was just such an operational crisis that the Afghans couldn’t handle it themselves, the cavalry will come in and [provide] support,” Pavel said. “Whatever the missions are, they should be guided by a strategy, and our leaders need to lead to ensure that everybody follows that strategy until we are comfortable that we can reduce [troop levels] even further.”

That is a key issue for other European countries and the U.S. to decide: What will be the scope of NATO’s role in Afghanistan after ending combat operations and post-2014?  (photo: Getty)

From Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the Wall Street Journal:  Last month, NATO conducted a historic exercise: the first comprehensive test of the alliance’s new missile-defense capability. A U.S. ship, radar and satellite, as well as interceptor batteries from Germany and the Netherlands, conducted a series of simulated engagements to test the alliance’s ability to defend against missile attacks. The test was successful… .

Today, we face a grave and growing threat from the proliferation of ballistic-missile technology. More than 30 countries have acquired such technology or are working to acquire it. Some already have missiles that can be fitted with conventional warheads or weapons of mass destruction, and some of these missiles can reach Europe. That’s why the U.S. and European allies are working together within NATO to develop appropriate responses… .

The U.S. and a number of European allies have announced their intention to contribute interceptors, sensors and control systems, as well as to host key parts of the overall system. At our summit in Chicago on May 20-21, we will declare an interim capability that brings these individual contributions together under NATO command and control.

This interim capability will provide the alliance with a limited but operationally meaningful and immediately available capability against a ballistic-missile threat. It is the first step, but a real step, toward providing full coverage for all NATO populations, territory and forces in Europe… .

From the very beginning, the whole point of NATO missile defense has been to go beyond the U.S. contribution. European allies are fully involved—supporting it politically, sharing the costs, and providing substantial assets of their own. Many different assets from European allies are being drawn together with the U.S. assets into a common, integrated and shared NATO capability.

The alliance has already developed an initial command-and-control system to link the U.S. assets with sensors and interceptors provided by European allies. This part of the system is designed by NATO, paid for by NATO, and operated by NATO.

After the Chicago summit, we will continue to expand the system toward full operational capability. The Netherlands has already announced plans to upgrade four air-defense frigates with missile-defense radar. France plans to develop an early-warning capability and long-range radar. Germany has offered Patriot missile batteries and is hosting the NATO command-and-control at Headquarters Alliance Air Command in Ramstein. Turkey, Romania, Poland and Spain have all agreed to host U.S. assets. I expect more announcements in the months and years ahead.

Mr. Rasmussen is secretary-general of NATO. (photo: Defense Update)

From AFP:   [I]incoming president Francois Hollande will soon have to reassure NATO allies about his decision to end combat earlier than planned.

Hollande made a campaign promise to start bringing 3,300 French soldiers home this year, ending his country’s combat role two years earlier than NATO’s carefully crafted plan to fully hand security control to Afghans by 2014.

“I believe that, without taking any risks for our troops, it is the right thing to withdraw our combat troops by the end of 2012,” Hollande said last week.

The Socialist leader will bring this message to fellow NATO leaders when they meet at a summit hosted by US President Barack Obama in Chicago on May 20-21, just days after Hollande’s oath of office.

NATO military officials say the alliance had already made contingency plans in the event Hollande defeated right-wing incumbent President Nicolas Sarkozy.

Nevertheless, a diplomat acknowledged that the new leader’s stance “was not warmly welcomed” at alliance headquarters… .

But the early French pullout challenges NATO assurances that there would be no “rush to the exit” in Afghanistan, even though the war is unpopular in the West after a decade of fighting that has killed almost 3,000 foreign troops… .

Canada and the Netherlands have already switched to training missions while Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard indicated last month that her troops could begin leaving as early as next year… .

Francois Heisbourg, special advisor at the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris, said the NATO alliance wanted to avoid any drama as it attempted a smooth withdrawal from Afghanistan, even if success was uncertain in the end.

“Everybody is aware of this, and NATO has no interest in creating a controversy” with Hollande, he said. “The priority is to avoid giving the impression of a disorderly withdrawal.”

A senior NATO military official said the Afghan transition would be “fairly well managed” despite Hollande’s plan, as commanders had already anticipated the possibility that he might be elected and prepared accordingly.

NATO military planners “are paying attention to various nations and political situations all the time,” the official said.   (photo: ISAF)

From Ben Farmer, the Telegraph:  Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the alliance’s secretary general, said he would speak with the new French president immediately amid concerns France would soon announce the withdrawal of its 3,600-strong contingent… .

Barack Obama is also likely to appeal to Mr Hollande to remain in Afghanistan after inviting the new French president for talks at the White House… .

Any decision on an early French pull-out would need to be agreed with its allies at the Nato summit in Chicago later this month.

Manuel Valls, Mr Hollande’s communications director, confirmed that France would use the summit to “announce the withdrawal of its forces from Afghanistan between now and the end of the year.”

French diplomats in Kabul also expected Mr Hollande to fulfil his pledge, though there were doubts that France could remove all its materiel from the country in time.  (photo: Reuters)

From the White House:  President Obama called President-elect Francois Hollande of France to congratulate him after the results of the French election were announced today.  President Obama indicated that he looks forward to working closely with Mr. Hollande and his government on a range of shared economic and security challenges.  President Obama noted that he will welcome President-elect Hollande to Camp David for the G-8 Summit and to Chicago for the NATO Summit later this month, and proposed that they meet beforehand at the White House.  President Obama and President-elect Hollande each reaffirmed the important and enduring alliance between the people of the United States and France.

Statement by the Press Secretary on the President’s Call to President-elect Hollande of France, May 6, 2012

From Nicholas Vinocur, Reuters:  The trip to Washington will follow shortly after Hollande’s inauguration and his first trip abroad, to Berlin, where he will meet German ChancellorAngela Merkel.  (photo: Getty)

From AFP:  The United States is confident of France’s commitment to NATO regardless of who wins the upcoming presidential election, White House officials said Thursday.

“France made a choice to reintegrate fully into NATO under President (Nicolas) Sarkozy,” saidElizabeth Sherwood-Randall, the National Security Council’s director of European affairs.

“It’s our understanding that, were there to be a change of government in France, the new team would respect that commitment because it has been to France’s benefit as well as to the alliance’s benefit.”

Socialist Francois Hollande, favored to become French president in the May 6 election, has vowed to pull all French troops out of Afghanistan by the end of 2012, one year earlier than Sarkozy had planned… .

“NATO has endured over many decades leaderships of many different political persuasions of the different member states,” Deputy National Security Adviser Ben Rhodes told reporters.  (photo: Getty)

From Gideon Rachman, the Financial Times:  France feels surrounded. To the south is the debt-driven austerity and social upheaval of Greece, Spain and Italy. To the north and west are the Anglo-Saxon markets of Wall Street and the City. To the east are the implacable Germans insisting on their new fiscal pact, which promises to make austerity a legal obligation.

Both the surviving candidates are promising to defend the French social model, by going on the offensive in Europe.

The kinds of changes that the two contenders would demand are slightly different. Speaking just after the first round, Mr Sarkozy promised to “protect the French way of life”. Specifically, he pledged to tighten border controls, limit immigration and promote a “buy Europe” policy. In EU terms that could translate into a push for trade protectionism and for a renegotiation of the Schengen treaty on free movement of people. After decades in which Europe has concentrated on ripping down barriers to trade and people, Mr Sarkozy wants to start reconstructing them.

The demands of Mr Hollande, the likely winner on May 6, would be even more problematic for his European partners. He has promised to lead the fight against austerity in Europe – and to reorient the EU towards growth. Who could object to growth? But Mr Hollande will do more than demand a rhetorical commitment in the new EU fiscal treaty. He is likely to want tochange the statutes of the European Central Bank – an idea Mr Sarkozy is also flirting with – which will cause a neuralgic reaction in Germany. Mr Hollande has also promised to reduce France’s deficit, while promoting Europe-wide spending on infrastructure. That can mean only one thing: Germany pays, an idea that will get a frosty reception in Berlin… .

While the candidates emphasised their differences, what was most striking as an outsider was how similar they all were: with their attacks on globalisation and on finance, their praise of the French social model, their lists of glorious episodes from French history and their insistence that France was not just any old country, but a model for the world.

The French exception is clearly alive. But it does not seem to be very well. That could soon become a problem for Europe as a whole.  (graphic: Ingram Pinn/Financial Times)

From Victor Davis Hanson, the National Review:  The administration has also quite publicly announced a shift in U.S. strategic attention to the Pacific, apparently on the premise of a rising China and a quiescent Europe and Mediterranean. Aside from the fact that Europe’s southern coast lies at the intersection of three continents, and is critical for operations in North Africa, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe, now is not the time for our first “Pacific” president to announce a drawdown in our European forces.

Historical pressures, well apart from Putinism in Russia, are coming to the fore on the continent — pressures that were long suppressed by the aberrations of World War II, the Cold War, the division of Germany, and the rise of the EU. The so-called “German problem” — the tendency of Germany quite naturally at some point to translate its innate dynamic economic prowess into political, cultural, and above all military superiority — did not vanish simply because a postmodern EU announced that it had transcended human nature and its membership would no longer be susceptible to ancient Thucydidean nationalist passions like honor, fear, or self-interest.

If you have doubts on that, just review current German and southern-European newspapers, where commentary sounds more likely to belong in 1938 than in 2012. The catastrophe of the EU has not been avoided by ad hoc bandaging — it is still on the near horizon. Now is the time to reassure Germany that a strong American-led NATO eliminates any need for German rearmament, and that historical oddities (why is France nuclear, while a far stronger Germany is not?) are not odd at all. In short, as the EU unravels, and anti-Germany hysteria waxes among its debtors, while ancient German resentments build, it would be insane to abdicate the postwar transatlantic leadership we have provided for nearly 70 years.

NROcontributor Victor Davis Hanson is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and the author most recently of The End of Sparta, a novel about ancient freedom.  (photo: MUBI)

From Celil Sagir, Zaman:  Turkey has blocked Israel’s participation in NATO’s upcoming Chicago summit in a sign of Turkey’s determination to prevent its new foe from cooperating with the alliance following a deadly ship raid.

Turkish and Israeli relations worsened in May 2010 and have remained strained since then after Israeli naval commandos stormed the Mavi Marmara, a ship carrying humanitarian aid to breach Israel’s Gaza blockade, killing nine Turkish civilians.

Turkey said it will not allow Israel, a member of the Mediterranean Dialogue, a NATO outreach program with seven non-NATO nations, to take part in the alliance’s new “Partnership Cooperation Menu (PCM),” during a NATO meeting in Brussels last week attended by Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu.

Because of Ankara’s veto, Israel will not attend the NATO summit due to take place from May 20 to 21 in Chicago, an important diplomatic summit to be hosted by US President Barack Obama.

According to information obtained from Turkish diplomatic sources, Davutoğlu reacted to the criticism raised by some NATO members in the Brussels meeting who claimed bilateral problems should not be brought to the alliance by underlining that Turkey cannot consider a country which killed Turkish citizens in international waters as a partner.

Davutoğlu reminded the members that Turkey was a country that rescued citizens of other NATO member countries who were detained by Israel during the Mavi Marmara raid. “Go and tell Israel to apologize for the incident and to pay compensation for the Turkish citizens whom it massacred,” Davutoğlu said… .

A senior diplomatic source said Turkey’s bargaining power is too strong. “We [Turkey] are blocking Israel in many areas. We avoid contact with Israel in any international meeting,” the same source said.

Another diplomatic source emphasized that NATO-Israel relations could not be restored until Turkey-Israel relations are normalized. 

From Hurriyet Daily News: Some ministers of the allied countries including the United States, France and Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen indirectly criticized Turkey for bringing its bilateral problems with Israel to the NATO platform. Some ministers went so far as to vow to veto the participation of Egypt, Mauritania, Algeria, Morocco and other partner countries in the activities of the Mediterranean Dialogue if Turkey continues to do so against Israel, something they called “a violation of NATO’s values.”

Criticism from Davutoğlu

In response to such statements, Davutoğlu harshly criticized his counterparts sitting around the same large table. “You are talking about being partners and partnership values. But partners, first of everything, should act like partners, so that we’ll treat them accordingly,” was the main message Davutoğlu delivered to his NATO colleagues. He elaborated:

- The army of a country which you call a partner killed our citizens upon a political order given by its administration. We do not call this kind of country a partner.

- Turkey evacuated from Israel not only Turks but citizens from many countries, after they were detained by Israeli forces due to Mavi Marmara incident. It also evacuated citizens of all nationalities from Libya and Syria without making distinction. Our expectation from all allied countries is to pay the same respect to our citizens as we do to yours.

- I assure you that Turkey will be the first country acting to protect the citizens of NATO countries in a similar incident. We believe in the notion of solidarity in NATO much more than the discrimination some of you have expressed.  (photo: Reuters)  (via @WPReview)

From Celil Sagir, Zaman:  Turkey has blocked Israel’s participation in NATO’s upcoming Chicago summit in a sign of Turkey’s determination to prevent its new foe from cooperating with the alliance following a deadly ship raid.

Turkish and Israeli relations worsened in May 2010 and have remained strained since then after Israeli naval commandos stormed the Mavi Marmara, a ship carrying humanitarian aid to breach Israel’s Gaza blockade, killing nine Turkish civilians.

Turkey said it will not allow Israel, a member of the Mediterranean Dialogue, a NATO outreach program with seven non-NATO nations, to take part in the alliance’s new “Partnership Cooperation Menu (PCM),” during a NATO meeting in Brussels last week attended by Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu.

Because of Ankara’s veto, Israel will not attend the NATO summit due to take place from May 20 to 21 in Chicago, an important diplomatic summit to be hosted by US President Barack Obama.

According to information obtained from Turkish diplomatic sources, Davutoğlu reacted to the criticism raised by some NATO members in the Brussels meeting who claimed bilateral problems should not be brought to the alliance by underlining that Turkey cannot consider a country which killed Turkish citizens in international waters as a partner.

Davutoğlu reminded the members that Turkey was a country that rescued citizens of other NATO member countries who were detained by Israel during the Mavi Marmara raid. “Go and tell Israel to apologize for the incident and to pay compensation for the Turkish citizens whom it massacred,” Davutoğlu said… .

A senior diplomatic source said Turkey’s bargaining power is too strong. “We [Turkey] are blocking Israel in many areas. We avoid contact with Israel in any international meeting,” the same source said.

Another diplomatic source emphasized that NATO-Israel relations could not be restored until Turkey-Israel relations are normalized. 

From Hurriyet Daily News: Some ministers of the allied countries including the United States, France and Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen indirectly criticized Turkey for bringing its bilateral problems with Israel to the NATO platform. Some ministers went so far as to vow to veto the participation of Egypt, Mauritania, Algeria, Morocco and other partner countries in the activities of the Mediterranean Dialogue if Turkey continues to do so against Israel, something they called “a violation of NATO’s values.”

Criticism from Davutoğlu

In response to such statements, Davutoğlu harshly criticized his counterparts sitting around the same large table. “You are talking about being partners and partnership values. But partners, first of everything, should act like partners, so that we’ll treat them accordingly,” was the main message Davutoğlu delivered to his NATO colleagues. He elaborated:

- The army of a country which you call a partner killed our citizens upon a political order given by its administration. We do not call this kind of country a partner.

- Turkey evacuated from Israel not only Turks but citizens from many countries, after they were detained by Israeli forces due to Mavi Marmara incident. It also evacuated citizens of all nationalities from Libya and Syria without making distinction. Our expectation from all allied countries is to pay the same respect to our citizens as we do to yours.

- I assure you that Turkey will be the first country acting to protect the citizens of NATO countries in a similar incident. We believe in the notion of solidarity in NATO much more than the discrimination some of you have expressed.  (photo: Reuters)  (via @WPReview)